Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 657 km/s at 11/0230Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/1540Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/1719Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 164 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 069
Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 11 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 007/008-009/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/40