Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 380 km/s at 11/2100Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 11/1045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/1010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 119 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 073
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  011/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10