Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 11/2031Z from Region 2665 (S06W03). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 640 km/s. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 10/2147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/0303Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 477 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jul), quiet levels on day two (13 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day three (14 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 091
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  008/008-005/005-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/25
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/30
Major-severe storm    30/10/40