Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 11/1836Z from Region 2385 (N08W68). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 689 km/s at 11/1125Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 11/0229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 10/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1211 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           11 Jul 120

Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 120/120/115

90 Day Mean        11 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  011/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  020/025

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  011/015-009/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                35/25/20

Minor Storm           15/05/05

Major-severe storm    05/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/15/15

Minor Storm           25/30/25

Major-severe storm    50/30/25