Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1757Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (12 Jul, 13 Jul) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(14 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 494 km/s at 11/1322Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/2100Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/1256Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3338
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jul) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul) due to an
expected CME passage.

III. Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M 30/25/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 113
Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 11 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 020/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 009/008-010/015-018/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/35
Minor Storm 05/15/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/40/65