Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 519 km/s at 11/0736Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1427Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/1513Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1223 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 074
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 073/071/070
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 005/005-008/008-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/30