Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 11/0439Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/0620Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/0620Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 978 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 Jan, 13 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (14 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 068
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  008/008-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20