Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 655 km/s at 11/1843Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 11/1855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/1809Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2146 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (12 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (13 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 108
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 108/105/100
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 014/018-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/15
Minor Storm 20/20/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/50/25