Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 January 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
January 11, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 January 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 11/0543Z from the west limb. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 657 km/s at 11/0652Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/0243Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/0612Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 638 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan).

 

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan

Class M    40/40/40

Class X    10/10/10

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           11 Jan 154

Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 160/175/175

90 Day Mean        11 Jan 159

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  009/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  009/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  007/008-007/006-006/006

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/15/10

Minor Storm           05/05/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/25/20

Major-severe storm    30/20/10

 

SpaceRef staff editor.