Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 11/0543Z from the west limb. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 657 km/s at 11/0652Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/0243Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/0612Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 638 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 154
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 160/175/175
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 007/008-007/006-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan