Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 378 km/s at 10/2101Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/1550Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0728Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 434 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 076
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15