Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 11/0048Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/2340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 11/1200Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 078
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10