- Status Report
- Feb 8, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 February 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 11/0500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2343 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Feb, 13 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 076
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 076/078/078
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/30