Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 11/0521Z from Region 2282 (N11E31). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (12 Feb, 13 Feb) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 433 km/s at 10/2214Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/1547Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/1059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 460 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M 30/30/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 131
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 125/122/126
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
