Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 11/0635Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/0214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/0218Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 071
Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 11 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/25