Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 11/1725Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 11/1217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 11/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1405 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Dec, 13 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Dec 072
Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        11 Dec 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  013/016-011/014-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/10
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/35/15