Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 December 2014

By SpaceRef Editor
December 11, 2014
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 December 2014

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2014

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 11/0856Z from Region 2234 (N04E03). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. 

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 489 km/s at 11/0116Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/2135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4933 pfu. 

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (13 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day three (14 Dec).

 

III.  Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           11 Dec 148

Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec 155/160/165

90 Day Mean        11 Dec 152

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  006/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  006/005-011/018-013/015

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/40/40

Minor Storm           01/15/15

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/10/10

Minor Storm           20/30/30

Major-severe storm    10/55/55

 

SpaceRef staff editor.