Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 August 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 11/0849Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/0439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/0433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 209 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 074
Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 074/004/074
90 Day Mean 11 Aug 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 005/005-006/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/25/25