Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 11/2033Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 11/0329Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/2021Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (14 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           11 Aug 067

Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug 068/068/068

90 Day Mean        11 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  004/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  009/011

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  011/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/20/10

Minor Storm           05/05/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/25/20

Major-severe storm    30/25/10