Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 August 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 11/2042Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 11/1816Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/1421Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4352 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Aug, 13 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 070
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug 070/068/068
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  012/015-010/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/25