Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 August 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
August 11, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 11/1644Z from Region 2574 (N04E21). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 11/1605Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/0055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/1715Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10558 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 095
Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 11 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.