Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 August 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 11/1515Z from Region 2396 (S18W51). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 492 km/s at 11/0851Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/0053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/0850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4102 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 103
Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 105/100/095
90 Day Mean 11 Aug 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/15/15