Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1932Z from Region 1817 (S22E22). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Aug,
13 Aug, 14 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 464 km/s at
10/2254Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/2129Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 11/1013Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 646 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 110
Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 11 Aug 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/05