Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/0521Z from Region 2987 (S31W06). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (12 Apr) and expected to be very low on days two and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 11/0412Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/0252Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/0549Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 995 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Apr, 13 Apr) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (14 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 099
Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 098/095/095
90 Day Mean 11 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 018/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 005/005-006/005-023/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor Storm 01/01/40
Major-severe storm 01/01/25
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/79