Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 11/1823Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/1457Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/1458Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 231 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 071
Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 070/068/068
90 Day Mean 11 Apr 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10