Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 10/2237Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2706 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Apr, 13 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (14 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Apr 079
Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        11 Apr 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  010/012-011/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/35/20
Major-severe storm    35/30/20