Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 April 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 614 km/s at 11/0817Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/0209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10905 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (12 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Apr 068
Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        11 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  015/018-012/015-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/50