Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 April 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 11/1659Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/0829Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/0741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2148 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Apr 075
Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        11 Apr 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/10