Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
11/1124Z from Region 2035 (S15E74). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr,
14 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at
11/0057Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/2056Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/2038Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Apr, 13 Apr) and
quiet levels on day three (14 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 138
Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 140/145/145
90 Day Mean 11 Apr 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 008/010-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/35