Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 September 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 10/2052Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 10/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 10/2000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 861 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (11 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (12 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 069
Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 10 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 023/035-012/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/35
Minor Storm 35/30/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 80/70/50