Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 09/2306Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/0107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/2321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4304 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (11 Sep, 12 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M 15/15/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 093
Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 095/090/085
90 Day Mean 10 Sep 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 009/012-013/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/25/10