Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 October 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 09/2257Z from Region 2882 (N17W01). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s at 10/2004Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 10/1901Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 10/1911Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 155 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected minor storm levels on day two (12 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 085
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 016/025-017/020-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/15
Minor Storm 30/20/05
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 70/60/20