Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 10, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (11 Oct) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 735 km/s at 10/0525Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0633Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0624Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 46271 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (11 Oct, 13 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (12 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 01/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 081
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 080/085/090
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 015/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 010/012-013/020-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/30
Minor Storm 10/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/35
Major-severe storm 35/60/40

 

SpaceRef staff editor.