Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
10/1647Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (11 Oct) and likely to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three
(12 Oct, 13 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
373 km/s at 10/1819Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/0123Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/0155Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 20/20/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 121
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 25/05/05