Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 10/1946Z from Region 2781 (S23W23). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 374 km/s at 09/2139Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 10/0554Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 973 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 087
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/20