Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 November 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
November 10, 2019
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 09/2152Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 726 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (13 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 071
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 011/015-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 50/25/10

SpaceRef staff editor.