Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 10/1332Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 10/0008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 10/0814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1668 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 069
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 011/012-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/40/30