Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 10, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2015

*** CORRECTION***

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 10/1411Z from Region 2443 (N07W95). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 766 km/s at 10/1505Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 09/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 09/2254Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 10/0020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 19551 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (13 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 105
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 110/110/115
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 022/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 026/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 013/018-022/030-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 20/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/60/40

SpaceRef staff editor.