Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 November 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
10/0222Z from Region 2205 (N14W08). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (11 Nov) and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class
flares on days two and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 552 km/s at 10/1713Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 10/0201Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 09/2308Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Nov,
12 Nov, 13 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 50/70/70
Class X 10/30/30
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 136
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 140/165/180
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 020/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 016/018-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/25
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/30/30
