Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
10/0514Z from Region 1890 (S12W28). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12
Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
649 km/s at 09/2105Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/2019Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/2044Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 522 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 154
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 155/155/155
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 014/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 010/010-004/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10