Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 09/2137Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 10/2014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/1659Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 320 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (11 May, 12 May) and quiet levels on day three (13 May).

III.  Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 May 076
Predicted   11 May-13 May 076/076/076
90 Day Mean        10 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  013/014-011/012-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/15
Minor Storm           15/15/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/40/10