Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 May 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 09/2137Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 10/2014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/1659Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 320 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (11 May, 12 May) and quiet levels on day three (13 May).
III. Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 076
Predicted 11 May-13 May 076/076/076
90 Day Mean 10 May 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 013/014-011/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/40/10