Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 May 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 09/2318Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/2319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/2252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 74279 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 May, 13 May).

III.  Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 May 070
Predicted   11 May-13 May 069/069/068
90 Day Mean        10 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10