Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 10/1711Z from Region 2339 (N13E08). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at 10/0830Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 10/1749Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 10/2000Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (12 May, 13 May).
III. Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 160
Predicted 11 May-13 May 160/165/160
90 Day Mean 10 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 009/012-017/025-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
