Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
10/0702Z from Region 2056 (N05E16). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
406 km/s at 10/0347Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/1652Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/1748Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 May, 12 May)
and quiet levels on day three (13 May).

III. Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 150
Predicted 11 May-13 May 155/160/160
90 Day Mean 10 May 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 010/010-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/05

VII. Comments
Observed Penticton 10.7 cm Flux estimated due to non-receipt.