Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 March 2021

By SpaceRef Editor

March 10, 2021

Filed under Earth, Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 10/0735Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/0147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 10/1603Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1458 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Mar, 12 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 079
Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 079/079/079
90 Day Mean 10 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 006/005-006/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/30

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