Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 09/2312Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/1900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/0050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2257 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (12 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Mar 071
Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar 071/071/070
90 Day Mean        10 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  022/030-014/018-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor Storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/35/35
Major-severe storm    55/40/40