Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 09/2227Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 10/1540Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 10/0055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 165 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Mar 068
Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        10 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  012/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/10/10