Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 09/2348Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0740Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0743Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12580 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Mar 071
Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar 071/071/073
90 Day Mean        10 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  009/010-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/25