Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 09/2200Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1824Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3078 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 095
Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 10 Mar 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 006/005-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 20/25/20