Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 09/2353Z from Region 2297 (S16E39). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at 09/2109Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/0455Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1055 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (12 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (13 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 121
Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 10 Mar 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 006/005-013/018-021/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar