Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
10/1528Z from Region 2002 (S19E37). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
350 km/s at 10/1330Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0956Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/0911Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 103 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 152
Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 10 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05